How accurate is the snow day calculator?
Accuracy depends almost entirely on how far ahead you check. Inside 24 hours, when the weather models have largely converged, the prediction is a strong signal. Two or three days out it is closer to an educated guess, because the underlying forecast itself is uncertain that far ahead. The model is tested against archived real closures and non-closures rather than tuned by eye, and the hardest cases are marginal temperature events where rain and snow are separated by a degree or two.
When should I check for the most accurate prediction?
After 6 PM the evening before. Weather models are at their most reliable inside a 12 to 24 hour window, and most districts make the call between 5 AM and 6 AM the next morning based on actual overnight conditions. Checking the night before gives you the best available read before the decision is made.
Does this tell me whether my school is actually closed?
No. This is an independent prediction based on the weather forecast, not an announcement feed. We have no access to any district's internal decision. Always confirm an actual closure with your school or district directly — through their website, phone line, or official social accounts.
Why is the two-hour delay probability different from the closure probability?
They answer different questions. A delay is the tool districts use when conditions are bad early but expected to improve — a storm that ends by 6 AM, or roads that need two more hours of plowing. A closure is for conditions that will not improve in time, or that arrive later in the day. A storm ending at dawn can have a high delay probability and a low closure probability at the same time.
Why does the same amount of snow give different results in different places?
Because districts have genuinely different thresholds. Two inches closes schools across much of the South, where there is little plowing equipment and drivers have less winter experience. The same two inches barely registers in Minnesota or Manitoba. The model applies regional calibration so the number reflects how districts near you actually behave, not a national average.
Why do rural districts close more often than nearby city districts?
Bus routes. Rural districts cover long distances on roads that are plowed late or not at all, and pick students up in the dark on shoulderless country roads. A city district on the same forecast has shorter routes on treated main roads. It is common for a rural district to close on a forecast that leaves a neighbouring urban district fully open.
Do colleges and universities get snow days?
Rarely, and they behave differently from K-12 schools. Most students live on or near campus so buses are not a factor, and closures generally require severe conditions rather than routine snow. Colleges also tend not to issue two-hour delays, opting instead to cancel specific class blocks or move online.
Is the calculator free?
Yes, entirely free. There is no account, no sign-up, and we do not collect personal information. Enter a location and school type and you get the prediction.
Want the technical detail — data sources, scoring weights, and known limitations? See the methodology.
Back to Snow Day Calculator